The 2-/10-year curve has reached “modern record” levels of inversion in the recent days. Although the usual interpretation of this event is that it is a recession indicator, it is more accurately thought of as a “Fed reversal” indicator. However, that distinction is somewhat academic, since the Fed normally reverses course during recessions.
Fed Reversal Pricing
Fed Reversal Pricing
Fed Reversal Pricing
The 2-/10-year curve has reached “modern record” levels of inversion in the recent days. Although the usual interpretation of this event is that it is a recession indicator, it is more accurately thought of as a “Fed reversal” indicator. However, that distinction is somewhat academic, since the Fed normally reverses course during recessions.