I see a lot of commentary on the war in Ukraine that is fundamentally misguided. As usual, I do not have a forecast answer to the question in the title of this article, rather I want to discuss how to think about it. I am not a military analyst, but I am not writing anything that is particularly deep. I am just explaining the basics of post-World War I military doctrine that are not understood in pop culture. Readers only interested in economic commentary probably want to skip this.
How about we give attrition a chance? The longer we help Ukraine to grind away at the disgusting atavism that is the racist white Russian cultural core the better the odds the poor sheeple will turn on their tormentors. It is critical, if at all possible, for the Russians to cut the head off the snake that is their paranoid and horrific legacy. This time they must baptize their transition, and new beginning, with nothing less than the bloodletting they should of had when they last found the KBG, and the worst of the Communists, on their knees. Nobody else can do it for them. They can't be provided with an excuse to revert to their old ways and blame 'outsiders' for their problems. Russians must not just close the door back to their past. They must destroy it. There can be no way, but, forward. ... That is worth waiting for.
Pretty sure the Ukrainians know this too. Pretty sure they know it is in their long term interest that the Russian system collapse internally BEFORE the Ukrainian people defeat them on the battlefield. Again, if the rotting imperial husk of Russian society is going to break free from the chains of their legacy, which no external force has succeeded in doing for over three centuries, they need to be the ones that do it. If not, the Old World has little chance of lasting peace for the Generations to come. The Evil that has taken root in Russia requires an overwhelming counter force. Only the Spilling of Russian Blood by Russians at this point can have any hope of cutting through the Gordian Knot that ties them to their Past. To imagine otherwise is wishful thinking and dangerous, as it merely postpones the inevitable recurrence of the White Russian reversion to type. Cheers ;)
How about we give attrition a chance? The longer we help Ukraine to grind away at the disgusting atavism that is the racist white Russian cultural core the better the odds the poor sheeple will turn on their tormentors. It is critical, if at all possible, for the Russians to cut the head off the snake that is their paranoid and horrific legacy. This time they must baptize their transition, and new beginning, with nothing less than the bloodletting they should of had when they last found the KBG, and the worst of the Communists, on their knees. Nobody else can do it for them. They can't be provided with an excuse to revert to their old ways and blame 'outsiders' for their problems. Russians must not just close the door back to their past. They must destroy it. There can be no way, but, forward. ... That is worth waiting for.
Pretty sure the Ukrainians know this too. Pretty sure they know it is in their long term interest that the Russian system collapse internally BEFORE the Ukrainian people defeat them on the battlefield. Again, if the rotting imperial husk of Russian society is going to break free from the chains of their legacy, which no external force has succeeded in doing for over three centuries, they need to be the ones that do it. If not, the Old World has little chance of lasting peace for the Generations to come. The Evil that has taken root in Russia requires an overwhelming counter force. Only the Spilling of Russian Blood by Russians at this point can have any hope of cutting through the Gordian Knot that ties them to their Past. To imagine otherwise is wishful thinking and dangerous, as it merely postpones the inevitable recurrence of the White Russian reversion to type. Cheers ;)