7 Comments

I've read a lot of post-mortem pieces today. Yours is the most optimistic of them all. Thank you.

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Economically, sure. I think Trump lacks the stamina to deliver seriously damaging economic policies, and he does have better economic instincts than the “smarter” politicians like Obama. But I’m less optimistic on the non-economic side, particularly as a Canadian, we’ll end up being one of his tariff punching bags.

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With Musk's national debt fearmongering and DOGE I hope Trump does not lead US I to recession.

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We’d be about due for a recession based on the length of the business cycle by the end of 2028. Although Elon might be reliably stupid, Trump does have the instinct that austerity is politically damaging. It’s generally the Establishment types that drink the fiscal constraints Kool Aid™️.

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Fiscal policy may be looser but likely to further exacerbate the distribution problem, such as with cuts to social programs, is that your view as well? Also, the next major tax bill will need to be passed in 2025 or by early 2026, and I expect he will require at least that all his previous cuts are extended.

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Musk's DOGE will attempt to spend more efficiently. Spending will go to productive resources.

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They are pumping BTC so that will make many of his supporters happy.

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