I have been editing sections of my manuscript, and nothing out of that writing output is publishable here (since it is just a rehash of an earlier article). However, I am adding a new section on inflation theories that I will need to think about. This article summarises what I think I will cover.
Charles Hayden, in the September 12 edition (#17) of the Applied MMT podcast introduces the idea of aggregating prices from [The Chicago?] futures market, as, he points out, all inflation metrics are [slightly] past measures and so have no predictive value. I suppose its a version of expectations with the twist that those prices are already embedded in the present moment, by those expectations of the traders, into forward pricing. I just heard that one yesterday, so beyond that it's intriguing, don't have my own opinion.
Separately, for those people such as myself in the gougeflation-light (Piketty's r>G) camp, I wonder what the metrics are that that camp uses.
Charles Hayden, in the September 12 edition (#17) of the Applied MMT podcast introduces the idea of aggregating prices from [The Chicago?] futures market, as, he points out, all inflation metrics are [slightly] past measures and so have no predictive value. I suppose its a version of expectations with the twist that those prices are already embedded in the present moment, by those expectations of the traders, into forward pricing. I just heard that one yesterday, so beyond that it's intriguing, don't have my own opinion.
Separately, for those people such as myself in the gougeflation-light (Piketty's r>G) camp, I wonder what the metrics are that that camp uses.
There's also the new kid on the block - VAR models.
Or curve fitting to a belief.
They need to speak to some early 2000s momentum traders to see how that turned out.