Although I am not a forecaster, I periodically comment on what I would probably be looking at if I attempted to do so. Right now, the interesting thing is the possibility of a decoupling between Europe and the United States. The latest round of U.S. data has been strong, the Fed has hiked rates again, and Fed analysts apparently have thrown in the towel on recession risks (oh dear). Meanwhile, survey data out of Europe (particularly Germany) has been weak. The chart above shows what I hope is the current (not forward looking, which is less negative) demand for loans by firms in the euro area.
Decoupling
Decoupling
Decoupling
Although I am not a forecaster, I periodically comment on what I would probably be looking at if I attempted to do so. Right now, the interesting thing is the possibility of a decoupling between Europe and the United States. The latest round of U.S. data has been strong, the Fed has hiked rates again, and Fed analysts apparently have thrown in the towel on recession risks (oh dear). Meanwhile, survey data out of Europe (particularly Germany) has been weak. The chart above shows what I hope is the current (not forward looking, which is less negative) demand for loans by firms in the euro area.