...it links directly to a couple of the original texts of the most recent pieces by Zoltan Pozsar (dated December 27 and December 29).
In it is the statement (perhaps only marginally hyperbolic):
"Apart from Michael Hudson, Poszar may be the only western economic analyst who understands the global shift in power..."
In my limited understanding of these matter the critical aspect of MMT used in the analysis seems to be one of Chartalism and the loss of the dollars acceptance as a 'trustworthy' international reserve currency (an acceptance that has basically been backed by a threat of violence).
In some respects maybe you answer your own uncertainty with your objections to Pozsar's analysis at the start of your final paragraph... "other than in the scenario of energy flows being cut off from the West"... which is, of course, precisely what is happening (US drawdown of SPR, begging trips to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, destruction of Nord Stream 2, etc.).
Considering the crash in Russian oil prices, I take some of the people who have been touting the rise of commodity currencies for a long time with a large grain of salt. You can’t ignore Western technology when discussing global trade.
We have had, until recently, a dominant commodity currency since the 1970s. It is called the petrodollar and the US has used the energy dense oil gained in exchange for US dollars to wage numerous senseless wars in an attempt to maintain the status quo. At the moment it seems unlikely that the Chinese are insane enough to go down the same route with the de facto rise of the petroyuan.
A simple change in framing is perhaps what is needed. Russia is not selling oil at a discount (which, by the way the GCC states are also selling oil to China at 'deep discounts') - the western nations are, in fact being forced to buy energy resources at a significant premium.
It probably doesn't make sense to talk of a 'Russian discount' when governments representing 4/5 of the world population are peacefully trading bilaterally within one low range of prices and only the western governments are being force to trade at higher prices.
This can be seen in reports breaking early in the new year that the DoE first attempts to replenish oil in its SPR failed to attract offers of oil of the correct type at a price the DoE was prepared to pay.
I think you place a greater weight on the importance / dominance of Western technology than I do. To my mind in materially meaningful areas of tech it is unclear whether there is any Western dominance at all - this is perhaps to be expected when Western economies have basically only been capable of generating fictitious (financial) growth since 2008.
You might want to check out Pepe Escobar's latest piece in The Cradle...
https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/20037
...it links directly to a couple of the original texts of the most recent pieces by Zoltan Pozsar (dated December 27 and December 29).
In it is the statement (perhaps only marginally hyperbolic):
"Apart from Michael Hudson, Poszar may be the only western economic analyst who understands the global shift in power..."
In my limited understanding of these matter the critical aspect of MMT used in the analysis seems to be one of Chartalism and the loss of the dollars acceptance as a 'trustworthy' international reserve currency (an acceptance that has basically been backed by a threat of violence).
In some respects maybe you answer your own uncertainty with your objections to Pozsar's analysis at the start of your final paragraph... "other than in the scenario of energy flows being cut off from the West"... which is, of course, precisely what is happening (US drawdown of SPR, begging trips to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, destruction of Nord Stream 2, etc.).
Considering the crash in Russian oil prices, I take some of the people who have been touting the rise of commodity currencies for a long time with a large grain of salt. You can’t ignore Western technology when discussing global trade.
We have had, until recently, a dominant commodity currency since the 1970s. It is called the petrodollar and the US has used the energy dense oil gained in exchange for US dollars to wage numerous senseless wars in an attempt to maintain the status quo. At the moment it seems unlikely that the Chinese are insane enough to go down the same route with the de facto rise of the petroyuan.
A simple change in framing is perhaps what is needed. Russia is not selling oil at a discount (which, by the way the GCC states are also selling oil to China at 'deep discounts') - the western nations are, in fact being forced to buy energy resources at a significant premium.
It probably doesn't make sense to talk of a 'Russian discount' when governments representing 4/5 of the world population are peacefully trading bilaterally within one low range of prices and only the western governments are being force to trade at higher prices.
This can be seen in reports breaking early in the new year that the DoE first attempts to replenish oil in its SPR failed to attract offers of oil of the correct type at a price the DoE was prepared to pay.
I think you place a greater weight on the importance / dominance of Western technology than I do. To my mind in materially meaningful areas of tech it is unclear whether there is any Western dominance at all - this is perhaps to be expected when Western economies have basically only been capable of generating fictitious (financial) growth since 2008.