Although I am supposed to be working on some material on banking, I have been distracted by the flood of news out of Ukraine. Although there is always great uncertainty, I think that a lot of geopolitical commentary has been based on the premise of a drawn out war (a “forever war” according to one economist). The problem with that view is that it assumes that the Russian troops are willing to fight in line with their theoretical capabilities. However, a collapse in morale means that theoretically superior forces can be rolled up. The classic example was the British/French army in 1940 that not only outnumbered the Germans, they had arguably better equipment — and lasted six weeks of contact.
Comments On The Russian Military Collapse
Comments On The Russian Military Collapse
Comments On The Russian Military Collapse
Although I am supposed to be working on some material on banking, I have been distracted by the flood of news out of Ukraine. Although there is always great uncertainty, I think that a lot of geopolitical commentary has been based on the premise of a drawn out war (a “forever war” according to one economist). The problem with that view is that it assumes that the Russian troops are willing to fight in line with their theoretical capabilities. However, a collapse in morale means that theoretically superior forces can be rolled up. The classic example was the British/French army in 1940 that not only outnumbered the Germans, they had arguably better equipment — and lasted six weeks of contact.